Labor & Statistics: Obama’s Real Unemployment Rate, 14.7%

With the release of the September jobless numbers, the Bureau of Labor & Statistics (BLS) have seemingly entered into the presidential election campaign in a big way. With its latest report, the Bureau plays a game of Three Card Monte, trying to hide Barack Obama’s dismal and quite real unemployment rate.

The numbers released seem to have taken a huge plunge, here is the ten year chart.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.4
2011 9.1 9.0 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.1 7.8

Isn’t it amazing that the unemployment rate dropped so suddenly, in a report that will be essentially the last report before the elections. Let’s have a look at the last few government Employment Reports and see if there are any anomalies in the most recent.

JUNE 2012
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to edge up in June (+80,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged 
at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Professional and business services added
jobs, and employment in other major industries changed little over the month.
Household Survey Data
The number of unemployed persons (12.7 million) was essentially unchanged in June, and the unemployment rate
held at 8.2 percent. (See table A-1.)
JULY 2012Total Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing.
Household Survey Data
Both the number of unemployed persons (12.8 million) and the unemployment rate (8.3 percent) were essentially
unchanged in July. Both measures have shown little movement thus far in 2012. (See table A-1.)

AUGUST 2012

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 96,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 8.1 percent,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places,
in professional and technical services, and in health care.
Household Survey Data 
The unemployment rate edged down in August to 8.1 percent. Since the beginning of this year, the rate has held
in a narrow range of 8.1 to 8.3 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.5 million, was little changed
in August. (See table A-1.)

SEPTEMBER 2012

The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 114,000,the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing but changed little in most other major industries.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.8 percent in September.
For the first 8 months of the year, the rate held within a narrow range of 8.1 and 8.3 percent.
The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1 million, decreased by 456,000 in September. (See table A-1.)

So, in September the Bureau of Labor and Statistics took one further step, informing us the number of unemployed persons decreased by 456,000 people.  But in the first paragraph—-they contradict the information and state the total nonfarm payroll rose by only 114,000 jobs.

How does one account for the difference in the workforce? Well, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics does it by calling houses and asking about peoples employment status.  Here is where the real anomaly lies.  That number jumped 873,000 in one month, which is the same month employers said they only added 114,000 new hires.  Based on this odd set of numbers, the BLS decided to lower the unemployment rate to the 7.8 level.

Did the main stream media report this?

Here is the real story folks.  But even this number is skewed by the false 7.8 number. Have a look

 

U-6, read it and weep.

Over 14.7 percent of the workforce is unemployed and this number is never included in the Bureau of Labor and Statistics announcement. In fact, there is a table in the announcement called, the “alternative measure of the underutilized.” They don’t call it the unemployed because they count people who took low paying part time jobs in the U-6 number.

The statistics put out are like the old three card monte games on street corners.  They just shuffle the deck and hide the actual cards in which people place their bet, or vote.

Adding to the confusion, the Department of Labor only tracks the amount of unemployment benefits claimed per any given month. It does not account for the 99-weekers who have exhausted their unemployment benefit and are no longer receiving checks.  As the above charts clearly show, the 99-weekers haven’t returned to work—they’re just no longer eligible for benefits and therefore, no longer added to the unemployment total.

Put simply, we can not trust the government to tell us the real numbers when it comes to the labor force.  We only need to talk to our friends neighbors and family to see the effects of the economy on the workforce.  More importantly the impact on our lives.